The search for effective Alzheimer’s treatments is emerging as a promising market, capturing the attention of major pharmaceutical companies and investors alike.
With Bloomberg Intelligence estimating that the Alzheimer’s treatment market could reach $13 billion by 2030, the stakes are high.
Leading firms such as Biogen Inc., Eli Lilly & Co., Novo Nordisk A/S, Roche AG, and UCB SA are heavily investing in research and development, aiming to unlock breakthroughs that could transform the industry.
The market’s potential echoes the recent obesity-drug boom, where effective treatments reshaped public health narratives and drove valuations of companies like Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly.
“The opportunity remains huge,” said Chris Eccles, portfolio manager at AXA Investment Managers.
“If we get a strong disease-modifying drug and very positive clinical trials, numbers can go back in models and forecasts can be revised upwards quite significantly, quite quickly.”
However, the road to success is challenging, marked by high-profile failures and regulatory hurdles, Bloomberg reports.
Biogen, for example, has experienced dramatic stock swings in the past due to mixed results from its Alzheimer’s drugs.
Drugs from Biogen and Eli Lily available, but come with side effects
Currently, two FDA-approved drugs—Leqembi (from Biogen and its Japanese partner Eisai) and Kisunla (from Eli Lilly)—are available in the US market.
These drugs work by targeting amyloid plaques in the brain to slow the progression of Alzheimer’s in its early stages.
While they represent a significant step forward, they neither halt nor reverse the disease and come with severe side effects, including brain swelling and bleeding.
“It could be a year where we also see a bit more clarity in terms of traction for the drugs that are approved so far,” said Gregoire Biollaz, senior investment manager at Pictet Asset Management.
Biogen and Eisai
Biogen and Eisai are banking on the development of an injectable version of Leqembi that can be administered at home, making treatment more accessible and less burdensome for patients.
Regulatory approval for the same will be a key factor that investors will be watching out for in 2025, as this would mean patients will not have to travel for treatment.
Another related stock, Sweden’s BioArctic AB, discovered Leqembi and earns royalties from its sales.
Its shares have surged more than eightfold since going public in 2017, but have struggled in recent years amid a challenging launch for the treatment.
Eli Lilly
Eli Lilly’s Kisunla received FDA approval in July 2024, and 2025 will provide insight into how it competes against Leqembi in the US market.
Beyond Kisunla, the company is developing remternetug, a next-generation Alzheimer’s treatment being tested as both an infusion and an injection.
The late-stage trial will assess the formulations for amyloid plaque clearance and safety, which could signal whether remternetug will be a better treatment option than Kisunla, according to Bloomberg Intelligence analysts.
Trial results for remternetug could be released at the end of this year or early 2026, according to BI’s Jean Rivera Irizarry.
Novo Nordisk
Novo Nordisk, a leader in diabetes and weight-loss drugs, is exploring whether its blockbuster drug semaglutide could help reduce Alzheimer’s risk.
Early studies indicate promising results, and a pivotal late-stage trial is expected to yield data in the second half of 2025.
Bank of America analysts have suggested that a positive outcome could boost Novo Nordisk’s stock by 10%-15%.
However, they also caution that Alzheimer’s research is inherently high-risk.
Roche
Roche is leveraging its brain shuttle technology with the development of trontinemab, a drug designed to clear amyloid plaques by crossing the blood-brain barrier.
The company is awaiting more data before deciding whether to proceed with late-stage trials, and UBS Group AG analyst Colin White sees this data potentially being available in the first half.
This follows Roche’s earlier disappointment with gantenerumab, which failed to meet expectations.
UCB’s cautious optimism
Belgium-based UCB SA is evaluating whether to proceed with its drug bepranemab, following a mixed mid-stage study in 2024.
While the trial missed its primary endpoint, it showed the drug slowed cognitive decline and reduced the accumulation of tau protein in brain cells.
Analysts like TD Cowen’s Stacy Ku view bepranemab’s clean safety profile as an asset, especially for potential combination therapies.
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