Sometimes history is written by accident.
Europe is finally starting to wake up, but not by free will.
It’s because the US, under Trump’s second term, is forcing it to.
The catalyst was a national security blunder that read like political satire: Donald Trump’s defense team accidentally added the editor of The Atlantic to a private Signal chat.
This chat not only revealed military plans but also how senior US officials talk about Europe.
That leak made something clear: The US no longer views Europe as a strategic partner. It sees it as a liability.
Now, what’s left to find out is whether Europe will finally do something about it.
Is the transatlantic security assumption collapsing?
For decades, Europe’s economic model was underpinned by free-riding on US security guarantees.
The truth is that NATO has allowed European governments to underinvest in defense while focusing on building welfare states, developing their single market, and pursuing regulatory leadership in areas like climate and data.
That arrangement no longer holds.
The Trump administration has made it clear that US security commitments are no longer automatic.
In Munich, Vance openly criticized European values.
The recently leaked chats revealed that Trump’s inner circle has called for financial compensation from Europe in exchange for US military action.
Trump himself has floated the idea of pulling out of NATO’s top military role, the Supreme Allied Commander Europe.
This position has been held by the US since 1951.
The E5 and a new security architecture
With the United States stepping back, a new configuration is starting to take shape inside Europe.
The informal group comprises 5 countries, which are now referred to as the E5.
These are France, Germany, the UK, Poland, and Italy.
This isn’t an official institution. There’s no treaty or secretariat. But it’s where coordination is happening.
These five nations bring together the bulk of Europe’s economic power, military strength, and political weight.
France and the UK are nuclear powers and permanent UN Security Council members.
Germany has just lifted its constitutional debt limits to push through a €500 billion defense and infrastructure package.
Poland is already NATO’s biggest spender by GDP and is on track to have the largest army in Europe.
The goal is to present a phased plan for a European takeover of key NATO responsibilities before the June summit.
Reports suggest that this plan may even include a European successor to the Supreme Allied Commander Europe post, should the US choose to walk away.
This is not a return to European federalism or even a revival of EU defense proposals.
It’s an ad hoc reaction by states that now know they can’t rely on Washington anymore.
Where will the new investment land?
One visible effect of Europe’s strategic awakening is the surge in public investment.
Germany’s €500 billion infrastructure and defense plan is expected to raise GDP over the next decade.
Defense firms like Rheinmetall and missile maker MBDA have reported rising orders.
Eurozone equities are up 12% since Trump’s second inauguration on January 20, while US stocks are down nearly in the same period.
For the first time in almost a year, economists have raised eurozone growth projections for 2026 from 1.2% to 1.3%.
Factory activity is also picking up, with eurozone business growth reaching a seven-month high in March.
But this momentum faces real limits.
Europe’s weaknesses are going to be stubborn. High energy costs, fragmented internal markets, and regulatory red tape are top priorities.
There is money flowing, but the bottlenecks are in absorption and execution.
Much of the defense and infrastructure funding will take years to manifest.
And while Rheinmetall or Strabag may thrive in 2025, steelmakers and SMEs will struggle with bureaucracy and energy volatility.
Trade and uncertainty are still hanging over everything
Europe’s export-driven economy has another problem to worry about: a looming trade war.
On April 2, the US is set to impose new tariffs on European goods.
The ECB estimates that a 25% tariff could cut eurozone output by 0.3 percentage points in the first year.
If Europe retaliates, the impact could double.
Trade uncertainty is already freezing some investments.
Indexes tracking policy risk, trade disruptions, and investor confidence have spiked to all-time highs.
Executives across manufacturing and finance say they’re holding back on long-term decisions until they get a clearer view of where US policy is going.
That clarity may not come anytime soon, perhaps for a reason.
Is this an emergency response?
Some are calling this moment a European awakening.
Some even describe it as a turning point. But there’s a difference between strategic planning and being forced into action.
Europe doesn’t have a long-term vision. It’s reacting to sudden abandonment.
And while the pace of announcements is impressive, with more spending, new cooperation, and stronger language, the foundation is unstable.
The EU still can’t act as one on foreign policy. NATO, though still intact, may lose its command structure if the US walks away.
And while the E5 is moving fast, it excludes key players in European defense: the Nordics, the Baltics, and smaller states with serious capabilities.
There’s also the matter of public support.
Most European voters still oppose large defense budgets.
Governments are not yet being honest about what real autonomy would cost.
The most important shift in the US–Europe relationship isn’t about budgets.
It’s about identity.
The leaked Signal messages didn’t just mock Europe’s military spending, they revealed outright contempt.
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