Holiday sales in the United States are set to increase at the slowest pace since the pandemic, according to Deloitte’s latest forecast, released on Wednesday, reported by Reuters.
The study, which examined consumer behaviour and broader economic conditions, reveals how inflation, tariffs, and policy uncertainty are influencing purchasing decisions ahead of the peak shopping season.
With retailers issuing mixed outlooks, the November 2025 to January 2026 period will test how households balance higher prices with festive spending, a factor that directly impacts chains from Walmart to Macy’s, and even toymakers like Mattel.
Deloitte sees sales rising to $1.61 trillion-$1.62 trillion
Deloitte projects US holiday sales will rise between 2.9% and 3.4%, reaching $1.61 trillion to $1.62 trillion this season.
This compares with a 4.2% increase a year earlier, and a stronger 7.2% jump in 2020-21, when spending rebounded after initial pandemic restrictions.
The forecast relies on data from the US Commerce Department and the Bureau of Economic Analysis, placing the projected growth at its weakest pace in five years.
Consumers are becoming selective, with surveys showing a willingness to cut back or spread purchases differently across the season.
A PwC survey earlier in September predicted the steepest fall in holiday spending since the pandemic, pointing to younger groups such as Gen Z as among those tightening budgets.
E-commerce still outpaces in-store sales growth
Digital shopping remains resilient in the overall slowdown.
Deloitte expects e-commerce sales to grow between 7% and 9% this season, broadly in line with the 8% growth recorded last year.
In comparison, in-store sales are forecast to rise by just 2% to 2.2%, down from 3.4% in 2024.
This contrast reflects the structural shift in consumer behaviour, with online platforms continuing to attract shoppers even as retailers invest in both digital and physical channels.
The figures also show how the market is adjusting to post-pandemic patterns. In 2019-20, holiday sales rose 4.9%, but the surge to 7.2% in 2020-21 was driven by pent-up demand and stimulus measures.
Since then, growth rates have gradually slowed, reflecting tougher macroeconomic conditions and the removal of fiscal support.
Retailers split on their forecasts
The outlook for the 2025 holiday season comes as major US retailers share diverging expectations.
Walmart and Macy’s have raised their annual forecasts, signalling confidence in consumer demand, while Target and Best Buy have maintained their guidance.
Toymaker Mattel, in contrast, has cut its forecast, showing caution about holiday demand for discretionary goods.
These moves underline the uneven performance across retail categories, with essentials such as groceries likely to hold up better than big-ticket or luxury items.
Deloitte also noted that some consumers may be front-loading purchases due to concerns over tariffs and inflationary pressures.
This trend could shift sales away from the traditional late-December peak, complicating retailers’ inventory planning.
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